Fluctuating tariffs, the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and a 43-day government shutdown made “uncertainty” the economic buzzword of 2025.
Area economists and business leaders say that may carry into 2026, at least for the short term.
“A lot of economists, myself included, have a lot more questions than answers,” said Nancy Haskell, an economics professor and J. Robert Berry Endowed Fellow at the University of Dayton. “It’s a messy picture right now. There’s a lot of uncertainty.”
Haskell said reading the usual economic indicators doesn’t necessarily unmuddy the picture, with a lot of different pieces moving in different directions.
The economy seems to be tipping toward recession, but GDP growth is solid. There are jobs out there, but the emergence of artificial intelligence and the flux in manufacturing due to tariffs and other factors are making them difficult to land.
“The jobs are there, they just don’t match up (with the training),” she said.
Haskell said the Dayton region is poised to weather the uncertainty and ultimately thrive thanks in part to the businesses that support the work being done at Wright Patterson Air Force Base.
The region has engineering technology and manufacturing, in addition to a strong education base throughout the Cincinnati-Dayton-Columbus corridor, she said.
Dayton’s abundance of talent and resources in high-tech sectors, in addition to a stock of available real estate, has kept the city attractive to businesses looking for a place to set up shop.
Credit: Bryant Billing
Credit: Bryant Billing
“It’s hard to make predictions, but we are cautiously optimistic,” said Jeff Hoagland, president and CEO of the Dayton Development Coalition. “The fall was busy with expansion discussions with companies and site selection activity, so we continue to be encouraged as we move (into) 2026.”
Between 2021 and 2023, the DDC saw new location projects increase, overtaking expansions of existing companies and marking a shift toward companies choosing to establish a Midwest presence, Hoagland said.
He added that numerous projects fostered in previous years will ramp up in 2026 citing companies such as Joby Aviation, Honda and the Sierra Nevada Corporation.
The uncertainty in Washington, D.C., will continue to have a significant effect on the Dayton economy in 2026, Hoagland said, mostly because of the federal dollars that flow to Wright-Patterson and to the defense contractors that support the base.
But that’s nothing new for the coming year, and not necessarily a negative, Hoagland said.
“There are always ups and down in this relationship, but the trend in the last few years has been up. We will continue to work with the region’s federal delegation to advocate for our military service members and their families, as well as for the base,” he said.
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